Week of Mar 9, 2026 HOUST 1,404K ↑ +6.2% PERMIT 1,448K ↑ +4.3% NAHB HMI 42 ↓ −2.1% MORT30 6.04% ↑ +0.2pp HSN1F 657K ↓ −1.7% MBA PURCHASE 152.3 ↓ −0.8% MSACSR 7.6mo ↓ −1.3% CENSUS:4441 $12.1B ↑ +1.1% Week of Mar 9, 2026 HOUST 1,404K ↑ +6.2% PERMIT 1,448K ↑ +4.3% NAHB HMI 42 ↓ −2.1% MORT30 6.04% ↑ +0.2pp HSN1F 657K ↓ −1.7% MBA PURCHASE 152.3 ↓ −0.8% MSACSR 7.6mo ↓ −1.3% CENSUS:4441 $12.1B ↑ +1.1%
About Senex

Expertise in the building products channel.
Since before the data existed.

Senex Global was built on a simple premise: the building products channel generates more intelligence than any manufacturer or retailer can process alone. The companies that win are the ones who have an expert reading that intelligence for them — not just passing along the data.

For over two decades, Bob Tancula has been that expert for some of the largest names in the industry — long before the data infrastructure existed to quantify what he was seeing on the ground.

BT
Bob Tancula
Founder & Principal, Senex Global

Bob has spent more than twenty-five years in the building products channel — as an analyst, advisor, and strategic partner to manufacturers, retailers, and distributors across the full product spectrum.

His clients have included Andersen, JELD-WEN, Lennox, Legrand, Fluidmaster, Big Ass Fans, and others. He is known in the channel for his ability to separate what the data shows from what it means — and for being direct about both.

He founded Senex Global to give mid-market building products companies access to the kind of intelligence that was previously available only to companies large enough to build internal research teams.

The data is necessary.
The interpretation is the product.

Three principles that guide how we work with every client.

Leading beats lagging
Your sell-through data confirms what already happened. Permits, mortgage applications, and builder confidence tell you what's coming. We build everything around the leading side of the signal stack — so you have time to act.
Separate the segments
New construction and R&R move on different clocks, respond to different signals, and serve different customer decision patterns. The most common forecasting mistake in the channel is treating them as one market. We never do.
Watch the trend, not the month
Single-month data is noise. Multi-family starts, in particular, have enormous month-to-month volatility that leads manufacturers to make reactive decisions based on statistical artifacts. Senex reads trends — especially the pipeline on the boards that drives the next two to three years.

Hard numbers, rigorously
maintained.

The intelligence Senex delivers is only as good as the data behind it. This is how we ensure the signal layer stays clean.

Data Infrastructure — Sources and Standards
6 Primary Sources
Ingested and reconciled weekly
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), NAHB, U.S. Census Bureau, NAR, MBA, and AHAM. Every series is pulled, transformed, and timestamped on the same weekly cadence.
Z-Score Analysis
24-month historical baseline
Moves are only flagged when they clear a 1.5-standard-deviation threshold against a rolling 24-month baseline. This filters noise and ensures that only statistically significant signals reach interpretation.
Cross-Series Divergence
Tension analysis across series
When permits surge while builder confidence falls, the divergence is as important as either series on its own. Senex explicitly tracks cross-series tensions — the signals hiding in plain sight that most teams miss.
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The multi-family segment is highly volatile when looking at starts. Manufacturers and dealers are aware that the pipeline they monitor is the projects on the boards — coming in the next three years. Watching monthly starts change is a poor way to monitor the trends in this segment.
BT
Bob Tancula
Founder & Principal, Senex Global

Ready to work with a team that knows the channel?

Twenty-five years of building products experience, backed by a weekly signal layer that doesn't miss anything. Let's talk about what you're tracking.