Week of Mar 9, 2026 HOUST 1,404K ↑ +6.2% PERMIT 1,448K ↑ +4.3% NAHB HMI 42 ↓ −2.1% MORT30 6.04% ↑ +0.2pp HSN1F 657K ↓ −1.7% MBA PURCHASE 152.3 ↓ −0.8% MSACSR 7.6mo ↓ −1.3% CENSUS:4441 $12.1B ↑ +1.1% Week of Mar 9, 2026 HOUST 1,404K ↑ +6.2% PERMIT 1,448K ↑ +4.3% NAHB HMI 42 ↓ −2.1% MORT30 6.04% ↑ +0.2pp HSN1F 657K ↓ −1.7% MBA PURCHASE 152.3 ↓ −0.8% MSACSR 7.6mo ↓ −1.3% CENSUS:4441 $12.1B ↑ +1.1%

Demand Forecasting

Your sell-through data
is already four weeks old.

By the time your POS data confirms a demand shift, the supply chain already needed to respond three weeks ago. Senex reads the leading indicators — permit trends, mortgage application volume, builder confidence — and translates them into forward-looking demand signals your team can act on while there's still time to act.

Schedule a Briefing See the approach →

The Senex Approach

How we build your
forward demand picture.

Three phases. Every engagement.

01 — Discovery

Understand your lag structure

We start by mapping the relationship between macro signals and your category's sell-through — how long does it take for a permit spike to show up in your orders? Every category has a different lag profile.

Category-specific lag analysis (4–16 weeks)
New construction vs. R&R channel separation
Identification of your three highest-signal indicators
Baseline sell-through pattern review

02 — Analysis

Build the signal-to-demand model

We build a category-calibrated view of what current macro signals imply for your demand curve 4–12 weeks out. Signals are Z-scored against 24 months of history so only statistically significant moves reach your brief.

Weekly signal ingestion across six primary sources
Z-score deviation analysis (1.5σ minimum threshold)
Cross-series divergence detection
SKU-level demand curve translation

03 — Deliverables

Forward-looking guidance your team can use

Not a summary of what happened — a read on what's coming. Deliverables are structured for production planning, inventory positioning, and sales forecast adjustments.

Weekly signal brief with forward demand read
4–12 week demand outlook by channel
Inventory positioning recommendations
Quarterly review with senior leadership

Signal in Practice

What the leading indicator
actually looks like.

This is the gap that costs teams time. Permit signals move first. Sell-through catches up 12 weeks later.

FRED:PERMIT · Sell-through proxy · Jan 2025 – Mar 2026 · Indexed Jan 2025 = 100

Permits lead sell-through demand by 12 weeks

Leading indicator

Blue (FRED:PERMIT): building permit volume, indexed. Amber dashed: sell-through demand confirmation — same trajectory, 12 weeks later. The gap between those lines is your planning window. Permit acceleration in Q2 2025 showed up in sell-through in Q3. Teams using sell-through as their primary signal were already reacting to the past.

↑ Permits lead sell-through by 12 weeks Full signal analysis →

Our Data Layer

The signals we track
for forecasting.

These are the series that matter most for building products demand forecasting — and the ones most teams aren't reading weekly.

Key Data Series — Demand Forecasting

FRED:PERMIT

Building Permits (SAAR)

The leading edge of new construction demand. Permits precede starts by 4–8 weeks and product orders by 12–16 weeks. The most predictive single series for new construction demand.

MBA:PURCHASE

Mortgage Purchase Applications

The earliest signal of R&R demand. Purchase application volume leads existing home sales — and the R&R spending that follows — by 4–8 weeks. Critical for remodel-driven categories.

NAHB:HMI

Builder Confidence Index

Builder sentiment correlates with future new construction activity. Below 50 signals contraction. Senex tracks the three-month trend, not the single-month read.

Client Work

What it looks like
in practice.

JELD-WEN

Demand Forecasting

Reading permit signals 12 weeks before they showed in sell-through.

Permit activity for single-family new construction had been signaling a softening trend for three consecutive weeks — but JELD-WEN's sell-through data still looked healthy. Senex flagged the divergence early, providing the lead time needed to adjust production planning and avoid an inventory overhang.

Legrand

Demand Forecasting

Separating new construction signal from R&R noise during a mixed-signal period.

When new construction and R&R signals diverged sharply — permits up, mortgage applications flat — Legrand needed to understand which segment was driving their category's demand. Senex separated the signals and calibrated the forecast for each channel independently.

Your sell-through data
is already four weeks old.

How we build your
forward demand picture.

What the leading indicator
actually looks like.

The signals we track
for forecasting.

What it looks like
in practice.

Often paired with forecasting.

Stop forecasting in arrears.

Your sell-through datais already four weeks old.

How we build yourforward demand picture.

What the leading indicatoractually looks like.

The signals we trackfor forecasting.

What it looks likein practice.

Often paired with forecasting.

Stop forecasting in arrears.

Your sell-through data
is already four weeks old.

How we build your
forward demand picture.

What the leading indicator
actually looks like.

The signals we track
for forecasting.

What it looks like
in practice.